Dodge Momentum Index Slips -8.6% in March

“We are predicting the Dodge Momentum Index to work its way back to historical norms throughout 2023, concurrent with weaker economic conditions,” said Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting for Dodge Construction Network, in the press release. “Lending standards for small banks in particular have substantially tightened as banking insecurity intensifies. As a result, owners and developers are more likely to pullback in the short-term, which would further contract the DMI as we continue into the year.”

Commercial planning in March was driven down by less projects in the office and warehouse sectors, decreasing -29% and -11%, respectively. Institutional planning weakened more substantially, as healthcare fell -17%, education dipped -6%, and amusement planning activity dropped -14%. On the upside, however, a steady flow of research and development laboratories entered the queue, supporting the otherwise weakening sector. Year over year, the DMI remains +24% higher than in March 2022. The commercial component was up +37%, and the institutional component was +2% higher.

A total of 18 projects with a value of $100 million or more entered planning in March. The leading commercial projects included a $300-million office building in Chicago, and the $215-million 58 Logistics Center Industrial Park warehouse project in Bakersfield, CA. Two projects at UT Southwestern in Dallas, led the institutional sector: the $425-million School of Public Health and Health Professions building, and the $348-million rehabilitation hospital.