NEMA Economic Forecasters Win Honors For Accuracy

NEMA's economic forecasting team of Don Leavens, vice president and chief economist, and Tim Gill, director, economics, topped the The Wall Street Journal's (WSJ) economic forecasting survey for 2011. Each year the WSJ compiles forecasts of real GDP, inflation, interest rates, employment and other indicators from economists from trade associations, financial and consulting firms and academia. NEMA's forecasts for 2011 were the most accurate in aggregate of the 52 surveyed.

“In a year in which faulty government data threw just about everyone for a loop, it is nice to come out on top. A strong fourth quarter 2010 economic growth rate estimate by the government that was later revised sharply downward encouraged many economists to soften the level of their pessimism in early 2011,” says Leavens.

“Like other forecasters, we upped our growth forecast, but only modestly. Our restrained enthusiasm about growth coupled with a closer read on inflation and interest rates helped to sustain our forecast at the top,” adds Gill.

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