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AIA Updates 2020 Consensus Construction Forecast Because of COVID-19

April 23, 2020
AIA's panel of construction economists now sees a double-digit decline for nonresidential construction activity in 2020.

The American Institute of Architects (AIA), Washington, DC (www.aia.org) said in its closely watched Consensus Construction Forecast that its panel of construction economists now expect significant declines in construction activity this year.

While the panelists from Dodge Data & Analytics, IHS Economics, Moody’s Economy.com, FMI, ConstructConnect, Associated Builders & Contractors, Wells Fargo Securities​ and Markstein Advisors initially expected a modest slowdown for nonresidential building activity in 2020, they now see big declines because of COVID-19.

According to the Consensus Construction Forecast, “The small projected growth for 2020 has now been revised down to an -11% decline, with the sharpest decline predicted to occur in the commercial construction sector. While slight +0.6% growth was originally forecast for 2020, it has now been revised down to a loss of -14%. Institutional construction spending will also be hard hit, although not quite as seriously as commercial, with losses of -7% now projected, versus +2.9% growth predicted in December."

AIA said in the updated forecast that panelists were also asked to each select one or two sectors they thought could overperform the overall market in 2020, and one or two that could underperform. You can see their picks in the chart below.

Click here to see AIA’s updated Consensus Construction Forecast in its entirety.