EW's no-nonsense analysis of sales opportunities for electrical distributors in the voice/data market kicks off this month with a discussion of the longest mile in the datacom business.
Electrical Wholesaling magazine is taking up another editorial crusade this month: helping distributors analyze potential opportunities in the voice/data market. The emphasis here is on the word potential, because the voice/data market is not a market for everyone. EW doesn't want to douse your enthusiasm for this business with a bucket of cold reality. The upside potential is there. Installation of voice/data systems is growing at a much faster pace than the market for traditional electrical products. Electrical contractors are getting into this market in droves because they make more money than with power wiring, due largely to the incredible amount of "adds, moves and changes" that low-voltage wiring systems need to keep up with ever-more powerful brains of computer systems.
The size of the market that goes through electrical distributors? Estimates range from $4 billion to $7 billion, but the two biggest players in this market, Graybar Electric Co., St. Louis, Mo., and Anixter, Inc., Skokie, Ill., probably already pocket over $2 billion in voice/data sales, and plenty of other full-line electrical distributors and voice/data specialists got the word early on this business and are tough to compete with.
Still want in? Great. But be prepared to invest in salespeople who are highly-trained technoids who demand--and get--salaries much higher than what you pay your average field salesperson. You have to keep them trained, too. The voice/data products that electrical distributors will have the most success selling really aren't a whole lot more complex than the traditional electrical products that they already sell, but new voice/data product offerings appear as often as Internet IPOs hit Wall Street, and the technology is very much on the move.
Speaking of products, a lot of this stuff has the shelf life of a fresh cod, so you will have to develop a whole new appreciation for the concept of inventory management if you move into this market. Electrical Wholesaling wouldn't be doing its job if we didn't mention that there's also more than a wee bit of hype and hoopla from some manufacturers of these products. This makes it difficult to discern what's an absolute necessity to stock, and what will be a dog that will lazy around the warehouse for time eternal. Throw in the fiber-to-the-desk debate over whether installers should be using fiber-optic cabling or less-pricey copper wiring in office environments, as well as debates over industry standards that basically boil down to "How fast is fast enough?" and you will see why you have to do your homework on this business before diving in.
But that's what EW is here for. The "Distributors in Datacom" series kicking off in these pages will help you see if this market is for your company. The first article in this series is written by Paul Rosenberg, the on-staff voice/data guru of EC&M, EW's sister publication. Paul is not afraid to take on the tough issues, as you will see in this article, where he discusses how the antiquated wiring of the local telephone companies has created an enormous bottleneck that's restricting the flow of information to homes and businesses. The phone companies aren't in any hurry to lose their monopoly on transmitting voice and data information over their copper wiring systems. Paul, an advocate for the use of fiber in many different applications in homes and offices, says once the fiber pipeline finally reaches into the home, it will revolutionize the home office, phone systems and create a whole new market for voice/data goods in residential applications.
We think you will enjoy this new series. If you have any particular issues concerning the voice/data market that you would like EW to air out in print, please contact Jim Lucy, chief editor by phone at 913-967-1743, or by email at [email protected].
Breaching the Digital Bottleneck
A data bottleneck is strangling the world's data transmission system at the last mile or so of connection to homes and offices.
Imagine processing 400,000,000,000 pieces of information per second! Sound impossible? Believe it or not, that's exactly how fast backbones used by today's Internet providers operate: at speeds of up to 400 gigabits of data per second. What's more, in a year or two, they'll be even faster. However, this state-of-the-art technology does not exist everywhere. In the real world, our high-tech offices appear to "blaze" at a tortoise-paced 1.5 megabits per second, and the last link to the home struggles along at a snail-paced 30 or 40 thousand bits per second. So while the computer gurus of Silicon Valley want to provide many things for us, this "last-mile" problem continues to tie them down.
This situation continues for one reason only: The government protects local telephone companies (telcos) from competition. Since there's no reason to change, they continue to make big money leasing 1.54-megabit lines to businesses. (Called T1 lines, these can cost from several hundred dollars to more than $1,000 per month). In addition to this lucrative leasing business, telcos also profit from multiple phone lines in residences.
If the telcos allowed prices for bandwidth (the amount of signal sent from one place to another) to keep up with technology, they'd lose revenue. Remember, you and I cannot go into the telephone business, and if we tried to open up a second (and better) telephone company in any given city, the government could shut down our company, confiscate our assets, and even send us to jail! Since competition is forbidden, normal market forces are not at work.
The coming "end-run" years. Because of this telco bottleneck and the inherent inefficiency of the telephone network (designed for the world of 1930, not the 21st century), the new worldwide Internet data network simply cannot push through the morass of local telephone company systems. Instead, it's leapfrogging the telephone systems any way it can. This is occurring in the following ways:
Through cable television systems. This is a very good method from a technological standpoint, since cable TV is a large preexisting system with the proper type of architecture. Nonetheless, it's still questionable whether the cable TV system will provide a good last-mile link. Two main problems exist:
* Since the government regulates cable TV, telcos will probably donate enough money to politicians to make sure restrictions on cable companies never go away.
* Cable TV companies have a reputation for being rather predatory, generating significant ill will among customers. Many people would rather not do business with them at all (if they had a choice).
Via satellite. Right now, several high-speed data satellite systems under construction can deliver data to a home or office at rates well into the megabit per second range (perhaps even into the gigabit range). However, these systems will probably not be fully operational until 2002. After that time, they should effectively make an end-run around the telco system. Currently, it appears they're not restricted by the government. Therefore, there's probably not enough time left for Congress to shut them out of the market.
DSL. This is a telephone technology (as opposed to a data technology) called Digital Subscriber Line. It uses electronic boxes on each end of a standard telephone line to achieve speeds of up to 1.5 megabits per second. This technology comes in several flavors (ADSL, HDSL, etc.); however, they all are somewhat similar. Whether this will ever be implemented is questionable.
Since it's really not in their best interest to do so, telcos may not readily embrace the technology. For example, telcos left ISDN (the predecessor of DSL) to die on the vine. The same fate may await DSL.
Digital power-line (DPL). This is a brand-new technology that uses a spread-spectrum power-line carrier technology to send up to 1.5 megabits (and in some cases more) over standard power lines. This system will probably be too limited for use 10 years from now, but it could be a major factor for the next five to eight years. As far as this author knows, there is no legislation limiting the use of this technology. Besides, the fact that it operates over existing power wiring is an enormous advantage. Let's take a closer look at this particular technology:
How the DPL works. To send over a million bits per second through power lines, DPL uses a high-frequency conditioned power network (HFCPN). Rather than trying to push one signal very fast through the power lines, it breaks the signal into multiple streams, each of which is sent through the power system on a different frequency. Special receivers combine the mini-streams of data back into the original signal configuration.
These networks are complex but extremely stable and tolerant of electrical noise. They can provide between 6 MHz and 10 MHz of usable spectrum to far-end customers and more than 20 MHz of usable spectrum to near-end customers, for peak signal power levels of between 1mW and 10 mW. The overall spectral efficiency of the network depends on anumber of things, including:
* Customer type and number per distribution unit (typically up to 50).
* Type of multiple access requirements (dedicated or switched).
* Service requirement (voice, data, still or moving pictures, etc.).
* Digital or analog transmission technology.
* Modulation, coding, and compression schemes (data bits per unit of available spectrum).
* Traffic density mean and peak.
Under this scheme, you terminate the network interconnection conductors in a conditioning unit (CU), a three-port directional coupler, as shown in Fig. 1 (page 68).
The basic elements of the CU are shown in Fig. 2 (page 68) and include both high- and low-pass filter sections interconnected to form a frequency-sensitive directional coupler, which has a network port (NP), communication distribution port (CDP), and electricity distribution port (EDP).
These CUs provide:
* Safe and efficient interconnection of signals at speeds greater than 1 MHz.
* Directional propagation of signals.
* Reduced noise floor above 1 MHz.
* Isolation of variable customer loads.
* Suitable network service termination points for electricity and telecommunication services.
* Optimum spectral performance of the cable network.
Implementation. To implement the DPL, utilities must invest in equipment and training. However, this will allow them to get into the Internet-provider market more quickly.
The number of electrical utilities who will want to jump on this bandwagon is questionable, but you can certainly make plenty of money in these markets. Since the electrical utility market in the U.S. is deregulating for the first time, there are plenty of changes on the horizon. Most notably, competition will enter the market for the first time.
As power markets become competitive, taking advantage of new opportunities will become even more important, and utilities will surely take a careful look at technologies like DPL. Hopefully, they will implement them quickly.
The possible utility company end-run. Earlier, we discussed methods of making end-runs around the last-mile data bottleneck. If they choose to do so, electric utility companies could provide a terrific way to get high-speed data to the house or office. They already have cables entering every home and office, and they have plenty of expertise to run cables over long distances.
There are several reasons why it makes sense for electric utilities to deliver data to their customers. The tree-and-branch architecture of power distribution systems is perfect for Internet data transmission. It's now very economical to run optical fiber along long-distance transmission lines. Special optical cables are available that either combine with transmission ground wires (the top wire on long-distance power lines), or wrap around the ground wire.
Many utility companies have begun doing this in the past several years, and some have a lot of fiber already in place. Initially done for communication between substations, other users now rent out some of the fibers. If you install enough fibers, it could form a significant communications structure. It's possible electric utility companies could challenge telcos for all forms of communications business in just a few years--and win.
Telco technology is not an efficient way of delivering digital communications, because it's built around large, expensive central switches. Remember: Networks are routed rather than switched. In other words, each piece of data contains its own destination address and routes toward its final destination at several points during its travels.
The telco network is slow, expensive, and smart. The routed network is fast, cheap, and stupid: The necessary intelligence is not in the network, but attached to each end of the network. Fast and cheap is better than slow and expensive, and distributed intelligence is better than centralized intelligence.
How this actually plays out over the next decade will be fascinating. At some point, political demagoguery will inevitably come into play: "The communications infrastructure is a national asset: We can't allow it to be turned over to people who are interested only in profits," "Preserve it for our children," etc. There will probably even be several personal and financial battles. I don't think the forces of regulation and control can hold out indefinitely. But, they won't go without a fight. Stay tuned.