IHS Economist Sees a Better Global Business Climate in 2013

In the December IHS Global Insight Global Executive Summary, IHS economist Nariman Behravesh offered his 10 top economic predictions for 2013. Overall, he believes world growth will stabilize in 2013, after having slowed down from 4.2% in 2010 to 3% in 2011 and around 2.5% in 2012 (with the Eurozone and Japan going back into recession). He says global economy's growth rate will hold steady at 2.6% in 2013.

“The stage will be set for a modest acceleration of growth in the latter part of the year and during 2014,” he said in the report. “This cautiously upbeat outlook is predicated on the expectation that the massive monetary stimulus put in place in many key economies over the past year and a half will have some positive impact on growth, and that the current episode of “extreme uncertainty” related to the U.S. fiscal cliff, the Eurozone debt crisis, China's growth, and instability in the Middle East and Africa will become less intense, and that worries about many of these risks will diminish. Here are his picks for the Top 10 global economic trends in 2012.

  1. The US recovery will gradually pick up steam — unless it falls off a cliff.

  2. European growth will be weak in the north and negative in the south.

  3. China's economy will slowly gain momentum.

  4. Other emerging markets will also show signs of life.

  5. Commodity prices will move sideways again.

  6. Inflation will remain tame.

  7. Central banks will mostly be in wait-and-see mode.

  8. Fiscal policy will stay tight or become tighter.

  9. The US dollar will be stronger against the euro and flat against the rest.

  10. The risks facing the global economy will be more balanced.

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